Official Winter Outlook - 2026/27

❄️ WINTER 2026–2027 OUTLOOK ❄️

The upcoming winter has the potential to be one of the more unusual winters our area has experienced in years.

The primary reason is a rapidly strengthening El Niño. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center currently gives El Niño a greater than 90% chance of becoming very strong during fall and winter. Even more remarkably, NOAA gives the October–December period a 69% chance of reaching +2.5°C or greater, which would exceed the strength of every El Niño event in the historical record dating to 1950.

That does not mean our winter is guaranteed to be historic. But an El Niño of this magnitude significantly tilts the odds toward the weather patterns traditionally associated with El Niño.

🌎 First — what is El Niño?

El Niño occurs when waters across portions of the central and eastern tropical Pacific become unusually warm for several months. That enormous area of warmer water affects atmospheric circulation thousands of miles away.

For the southeastern United States, one of the most important effects is typically a stronger and more active subtropical jet stream across the southern United States.

In simple terms: more storms have an opportunity to cross the Gulf Coast, Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.

And that's the foundation of our forecast.

🌧️ RAINFALL — ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL

Confidence: HIGH

This is the part of the forecast we are most confident about.

We expect an above-normal to potentially well-above-normal precipitation winter across Southeast Georgia and the South Carolina Lowcountry.

Instead of extended periods of quiet winter weather, an active subtropical jet could produce repeated Gulf lows and coastal storm systems capable of bringing widespread rainfall.

Historical precedent is impressive.

During the exceptionally strong 1997–98 El Niño, Charleston recorded more than 22 inches of precipitation during meteorological winter, more than twice what would normally be expected.

This doesn't mean 2026–27 will repeat 1997–98. But it illustrates just how wet a strong El Niño winter can become in our area.

Repeated heavy rainfall, saturated soils, river flooding and occasional flash flooding could ultimately become the defining weather story of this winter.

🌡️ TEMPERATURES — NEAR NORMAL, BUT HIGHLY VARIABLE

Confidence: MEDIUM

This probably won't be three straight months of bitter cold.

Instead, we're expecting a highly variable winter.

El Niño traditionally favors cooler conditions across portions of the southern United States because of increased cloud cover, rainfall and the displaced storm track. However, that signal is competing with the modern long-term warming trend.

CPC specifically discusses this competition in its current seasonal outlooks.

That could leave our seasonal average relatively close to normal while hiding some substantial swings:

Warm spell → cold front → several cold days → rapid moderation → another storm system → repeat.

Individual Arctic outbreaks could still become significant. The question will be whether one of those outbreaks happens at exactly the right time.

And that brings us to everyone's favorite question...

🌨️ WHAT ABOUT SNOW?

Potential: ABOVE NORMAL | Confidence: LOW

There is an important distinction here:

El Niño does not create cold air. It creates opportunities.

An active southern storm track means there should be considerably more storm systems available to interact with cold air.

Most will probably produce cold rain.

But it only takes one properly timed Arctic air mass arriving simultaneously with a Gulf or coastal storm to produce snow, sleet or freezing rain.

And we have historical precedent for exactly that.

The February 1973 Southeastern Snowstorm occurred during a strong El Niño winter and became one of the greatest snowstorms in Southeastern U.S. history.

Official/local totals included:

• Charleston International Airport — 7.1"
• Beaufort — 6–6.4"
• Hilton Head Island — 2"
• Savannah International Airport — 3.2"
• Newington — 8"
• Areas farther inland across Georgia and South Carolina received more than a foot.

Then there was February 2010.

A coastal low initially produced rain before colder air arrived and precipitation changed to snow. Portions of Colleton, Dorchester and Berkeley counties received 6–8 inches, and February 2010 became the coldest February in roughly 30 years at both Charleston and Savannah airports.

Neither event is a prediction for this winter.

They demonstrate what is physically possible when an active southern storm track and sufficiently cold air overlap.

Our forecast therefore calls for an above-normal opportunity for at least one winter-weather setup, but confidence remains low. Whether anything actually happens could ultimately come down to the timing of individual systems only days in advance.

Ice would generally be a greater concern farther inland than immediately along the coast.

🌊 COASTAL STORMS / NOR'EASTERS — ABOVE NORMAL

Confidence: MEDIUM–HIGH

This may become another major theme.

Gulf lows can cross Florida or the Southeast before strengthening near the Atlantic coastline.

For Charleston, Beaufort, Hilton Head, Savannah and the barrier islands, these systems can produce:

Heavy rainfall, strong northeast winds, dangerous surf, beach erosion, coastal flooding and hazardous marine conditions.

We don't have to go very far back for an example.

On December 17, 2023, a powerful Gulf/coastal low produced record daily rainfall at Charleston and Savannah, significant flash flooding and major coastal flooding. Charleston Harbor reached 9.86 feet MLLW — the fourth-highest tide on record at the time and the highest non-tropical tide then recorded there.

El Niño certainly doesn't guarantee another storm of that magnitude.

It simply provides more opportunities for coastal storms to develop.

⛈️ SEVERE WEATHER — EPISODIC THREAT

Confidence: LOW

An active winter storm track also means we cannot completely ignore severe thunderstorms.

We're not forecasting an unusually large tornado season for the Coastal Empire or Lowcountry.

Instead, we'd watch for a few higher-impact severe weather opportunities embedded within the otherwise wet pattern. A strong Gulf low occasionally can transport enough warmth, moisture and wind shear northward for damaging winds or tornadoes.

This will be something evaluated storm-by-storm rather than something we're particularly confident about months in advance.

⚠️ THE BOTTOM LINE

🌧️ Rainfall: Above to Well Above Normal

🌡️ Temperatures: Near Normal / Highly Variable

🥶 Major Cold Outbreaks: Possible

🌨️ Snow Potential: Above-Normal Opportunity, Low Confidence

🧊 Ice Potential: Elevated mainly inland

🌊 Coastal Storms: Above Normal

🌧️ Flooding: Elevated

⛈️ Severe Weather: Near Normal / Episodic Threat

Winter 2026–27 has the ingredients to become a memorable winter for the Coastal Empire and South Carolina Lowcountry.

The developing El Niño itself has a legitimate chance of reaching historic strength. But that does not mean we're forecasting a historic winter.

The most reliable signal is much simpler:

An active subtropical jet could bring repeated storm systems, heavy rainfall, saturated soils, river flooding and periods of coastal flooding.

Snow gets everyone's attention, but snow is not the primary threat in this forecast. Rain is.

Still, the active storm track means we'll probably have plenty of moisture available. If one of those systems happens to arrive while sufficiently cold Arctic air is entrenched across Georgia and South Carolina...

then things could get interesting. 👀❄️

This is a seasonal outlook, not a prediction of individual storms. We're discussing broad patterns approximately 3–6 months in advance. Individual snowstorms, freezes, severe weather events or coastal storms cannot be reliably forecast this far ahead, and this outlook will be updated as winter approaches.